July 22, 2004: New Crime Figures Published

Crime in England and Wales 2003/2004 has just been issued by the Home Office. This key publication combines statistics from the British Crime Survey (BCS) and the figures from crimes recorded by police to provide a barometer of contemporary patterns and trends in the main high volume crimes. There are chapters on Levels and Trends of Crime, Reporting and Recording Crime, Property crime, Violent Crime, Patterns of Crime and Detection of Crime

There will always be some discrepancy between the number of crimes recorded by the police and the number measured by the BCS. Political point scoring aside, however, these are arguably complementary figures; police statistics offer a useful barometer of trends in well-reported crimes, and provide a gauge of police workload (and can also be used for local crime pattern analysis).

The BCS arguably offers a more complete estimate of crime in England and Wales (for the types of crime it covers, and the victims within its scope) since it covers both unreported and unrecorded crime and provides more reliable data on trends. The BCS is also not affected by changes in levels of reporting to the police, and in police recording practices.

Key findings:

• Overall crime has fallen by 5% in the last year, according to the BCS. There has been a 1% increase the number of crimes recorded by the police in 2003/04 compared with 2002/03.

• Since the peak in 1995, BCS crime has fallen by 39%, with vehicle crime and burglary falling by roughly half and violent crime falling by over a third during this period.

• The risk of becoming a victim of crime has fallen from 40% in 1995 to 26% according to BCS interviews in 2003/04, the lowest level recorded since the BCS began in 1981.

• According to the BCS, there has been a fall in the proportion of people believing that crime has increased over the past two years, both in their local area and in the country as a whole, compared with the previous year.

• Levels of worry about the main crime types have fallen compared with the previous year, as has the level of perceived anti-social behaviour. The latter has fallen from 21% to 16%.

• Levels of confidence in most aspects of the criminal justice system have improved compared with the previous year.